Ernesto weakens, but still coming

Ernesto weakens, but still coming
STEVE LYTTLE
slyttle@charlotteobserver.com

Tropical Storm Ernesto was downgraded to a tropical depression this morning in Florida, and a hurricane watch issued Tuesday for the Carolinas coast has been discontinued.

But the hurricane watch has been replaced with a tropical storm warning from North Carolina's Cape Fear southward to the central Georgia coast.

At 11 a.m., the center of a much-weakened Ernesto was about 55 miles west-southwest of West Palm Beach, Fla., and the system was moving northward about 10 mph.

The National Hurricane Center's Lexion Avila said Ernesto has top sustained winds of 35 mph and is not expected to change in strength before moving into the Atlantic Ocean off the north Florida coast tonight. At that point, it is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves north toward the Carolinas.

But, Avila added, "There are no indications that the storm will strengthen significantly while over water" -- not enough to become a hurricane, he said.

Instead, Ernesto is forecast to have winds of about 55 mph when it makes landfall sometime Thursday afternoon near or north of Charleston. The latest forecast track takes Ernesto northward through the Carolinas, passing about 100 miles east of Charlotte by late Thursday night.

Ernesto's main impact on the Carolinas is expected to be heavy rain and a threat of flooding. Another threat will be tornadoes, but that will be limited to the east side of the storm's center -- in other words, mostly to the east of Interstate 95.

Estimates are that 2 to 3 inches of rain could fall Thursday and Thursday night in the Charlotte area, with the heaviest rain east of Charlotte -- especially in Union and Stanly counties and eastward.

Additional heavy rain is possible today and tonight, but that will come from thunderstorms caused by an approaching cold front.

At the coast, tornadoes and rain of 3 to 6 inches is possible, forecasters say.

"At this point, we expect the rain to fall periodically -- in bands -- rather than constantly," said Greg Schoor, of the National Weather Service office in Greer, S.C.

Fellow forecaster Neil Dixon said rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is likely along and east of the Interstate 77 corridor, with some amounts of 4 inches possible.

Along the coast, even heavier rain and a threat of tornadoes are expected.

In South Carolina, three evacuation centers will open at 3 p.m. today in Charleston County. In addition, the port operations there will be closed today, and S.C. Gov. Mark Sanford has ordered all construction projects to be halted today along beach evacuation routes.

Sanford has activated 250 National Guard troops for possible duty in handling evacuations.