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The thing about PS3 is PS2. Let's be honest, Sony's new gaming slab is going to be bought and sold on the reputation of its old one. In terms of direction and image, I see no real change. It's going to be powerful, it's probably going to have the greatest hardware longevity of all three next gen contenders (unless Nintendo really have backed out of the 'fangtastic grafiizx' industry circle jerk and will follow through with Wii. Sorry.) and it's going to have some really, really really, really really really compelling games.
I'm speaking, of course, about the eventual Team Ico\Insomniac\Naughty Dog\Konami and rumoured Grasshopper games. But the margins, in terms of exclusive games that I personally want to play, are slim. I really can't see me being fussed about MGS4, as 3 left me wondering how Kojima still maintains his stature in the industry.
Moreover, I can't see it not eventually making its way to 360, like many former Playstation exclusives. The point is, all Microsoft has to do is put enough doubt in the minds of Eastern developers through 360 sales and you'll have a torrent of content that will become multiplatform overnight. Simply put, money talks and bullshit walks; If you think the Japanese don't realise the financial importance of the US\European markets, think again.
MS have a fairly good headstart and the intention to dominate. They're saying and largely doing the right things. All I hear from SCE these days is hot air and wheeze, and not even the 'good' PS2 kind of windbaggery; some of the recent fluff coming out of the Aussie mouthpiece over console pricing reminds me of Cecillion's desperate clawing during the last days of Dreamcast. It doesn't fill me with confidence.
Im thinking that the PS3 will do allright. Nintendos Wii looks really different. XBOX 360 was the first to hit shelfs of the next generation so I belive that all 3 will have great success.
The PS3 is really just playing off the PS2, with the same controller and all... bthe Xbox 360 did a good job, and the Wii is new, and will probably do best in Japan much like the sucess of the DS.